We all have an uncle, a grandmother or a colleague who forecasts the weather better than the met office. “Rain’s coming, I can feel it in my back!” So as soon as the first autumn rains arrive, the question comes back: can the weather really cause back pain?
Science has looked at this seriously. The answer is more interesting than a simple “yes” or “no”.
What the large studies found
The Sydney study. Researchers in Australia followed 993 people who developed sudden low back pain and compared the weather on the day the pain started with the weather one week and one month earlier. Temperature, humidity, air pressure and rain were not linked to the onset of pain. Only strong wind showed a very small association, which the researchers themselves described as trivial.
The 11-million-visit study. In the US, a Harvard team examined more than 11.6 million doctor visits by people over 65 (BMJ, 2017). On rainy days, visits for back or joint pain were no more frequent than on dry days.
The smartphone study. In the UK, in the University of Manchester’s “Cloudy with a Chance of Pain” project, 2,658 people with chronic pain logged their pain on their phone every day for about six months, while the phone recorded the local weather. Here a link did appear: on days with high humidity, low air pressure and wind, the chance of a worse day was about 20% higher. Temperature on its own and rain played no role.
“20%” sounds big, but in practice it is a small change. As the researchers explain, if someone usually has 5 “bad” days out of 100, in damp, windy weather they would have about 6.
So what is true?
- The weather does not cause back pain in a healthy person.
- In people who already live with chronic pain, damp and windy weather may make a difficult day slightly more likely.
- Part of “winter” pain may come from how our lives change in winter: we move less, sit more and tense up in the cold. These studies did not measure that, but it is worth thinking about.
The key message: the weather is no reason to accept pain as “normal”. If your back has hurt for weeks, or every time the weather changes, something is worth checking.
What the World Health Organization says
Low back pain is the leading cause of disability worldwide. In 2020 it affected about 619 million people, one in 13. In its 2023 guideline on chronic low back pain, the WHO recommends:
- Education about what is happening and how to look after yourself
- Exercise programmes
- Certain physical therapies, such as massage
- Psychological support, such as cognitive behavioural therapy
- Certain medicines, always on a doctor’s advice
Small practical tips for winter
- Keep moving. If it is raining outside, a short exercise routine at home or a visit to the gym counts.
- Get up from your chair. If you work at a desk, a few minutes of walking every hour makes a difference. See also our article on the neck and technology.
- Keep a pain diary. Note how much it hurts (0–10), what you did and what the weather was like. In a few weeks you will see what really affects you. It is also valuable information for your doctor.
- Dress warmly on cold mornings. It is not a treatment, but many people feel more comfortable when they are not freezing.
When to see a doctor without delay
If back pain comes with weakness or numbness in the legs, difficulty passing urine or controlling the bowels, unexplained weight loss, or started after a fall or injury, do not wait for the weather to change. Contact a doctor straight away.
Even without these, pain that lasts more than six weeks or keeps you from work and sleep needs assessment by a specialist. See also our page on low back pain (lumbago).
Our approach
At the Therapia Specialists Pain Care Unit, in Glyfada and Chalandri, Athens, care starts with a careful assessment: where it hurts, when, what makes it worse and what you have already tried. Based on this, Dr Triantafyllia Dimou discusses with you the options that suit your case. For modern options in chronic low back pain, see here.
The weather will change anyway. Your pain does not have to follow it. Book an assessment in Glyfada or Chalandri.
Sources
- Steffens D, Maher CG, Li Q, et al. Effect of weather on back pain: results from a case-crossover study. Arthritis Care & Research, 2014. doi:10.1002/acr.22378
- Jena AB, Newhouse RL, Olenski AR, Molitor D, Miller N. Association between rainfall and diagnoses of joint or back pain: retrospective claims analysis. BMJ, 2017. doi:10.1136/bmj.j5326
- Dixon WG, Beukenhorst AL, Yimer BB, et al. How the weather affects the pain of citizen scientists using a smartphone app. npj Digital Medicine, 2019;2:105. doi:10.1038/s41746-019-0180-3
- World Health Organization. WHO guideline for non-surgical management of chronic primary low back pain in adults in primary and community care settings, 2023. who.int
- University of Manchester. Cloudy with a chance of pain: smartphone study shows pain more likely on humid, windy days, 2019. manchester.ac.uk
This article is for information only and does not replace a medical examination.